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Home > Wishful thinking


 

Wishful thinking is the formation of beliefs and making decisions according to what might be pleasing to imagine instead of by appealing to evidence or rationality.

Studies have consistently shown that, holding all else equal, subjects will predict positive outcomes to be more likely than negative outcomes. See positive outcome bias.

Prominent examples of wishful thinking include:

1 Logical fallacy

In addition to being a cognitive bias and a poor way of making decisionsDecision making is the cognitive process of selecting a course of action from among multiple alternatives. Common examples include shopping, deciding what to eat, and deciding who or what to vote for in an election or referendum. Decision making is said t, wishful thinking can also be a specific logical fallacyA logical fallacy is an error in logical argument which is independent of the truth of the premises. It is a flaw in the structure of an argument as opposed to an error in its premises. When there is a fallacy in an argument it is said to be invalid. in an argument occurring when it is assumed that because we wish something was true or false then it is actually is true or false.

For example:

The teacher gave us a difficult exam! We shouldn't have to be subjected to such stress under the course of our education.

It may be that it was uncomfortable, but that does not mean that uncomfortable things should always be avoided. Wishful thinking underlies appeals to emotionAppeal to emotion is a logical fallacy wherein the arguer (who is using this fallacy) takes advantage of emotion to prove his or her argument. This is a type of red herring. It encompasses several logical fallacies, including: Appeal to fear Appeal to fla, and is a red herringA red herring also known as ignoratio elenchi ( Latin: ignorance of refutation or irrelevant thesis is a logical fallacy where an irrelevant topic is introduced to divert the attention away from the topic that's being discussed, or an argument where the p.

2 See also

Self-serving biasSelf-serving bias occurs when people are more likely to claim responsibility for successes than failures. It may also manifest itself as a tendency for people to evaluate ambiguous information in a way beneficial to their interests. Dale Miller and Michea may be a directly resulting cognitive bias; see the list of cognitive biasesCognitive bias is distortion in the way we perceive reality (see also cognitive distortion). Some of these have been verified empirically in the field of psychology, others are considered general categories of bias. anchoring anthropic bias attribution, a for more. Wishful thinking also plays a part in groupthinkGroupthink is a term coined by psychologist Irving Janis in 1972 to describe one process by which a group can make bad or irrational decisions. In a groupthink situation, each member of the group attempts to conform his or her opinions to what they believ, which concerns group decision making. Logical fallacies Cognitive biases

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