Casualties Of The Conflict In Iraq Since 2003 Overview

Casualties in the 2003 invasion of Iraq, the ensuing 2003 occupation of Iraq, and the continuing coalition presence there have come in many forms, and the accuracy of the information available on different types of casualties varies greatly.

For troops in the U.S.-led coalition, the death toll is carefully tracked and updated daily, and the names and photographs of those killed in action as well as in accidents have been published widely.

Regarding the Iraqis, however, information on both military and civilian casualties is both less accurate and less reliable, and given the political significance of these figures and the varied agendas of all parties, no source can be considered free of bias. At best, we learn of estimates of casualty levels either from reporters on the scene, from officials of involved organizations, or from groups that summarize information on incidents reported in the news media.

The word "casualties" in its most general sense includes the injured as well as the dead. Accounts of the number of coalition wounded vary widely, partly because it's not obvious what should be counted: should only those injuries serious enough to put a soldier out of commission be included? Do illnesses or injuries caused by accidents count, or should the focus be restricted to wounds caused by hostile engagement? Sources using different definitions may arrive at very different numbers, and sometimes the precise definition is not clearly specified. As for the Iraqis, where even the death toll has only been very roughly estimated, it appears that no one has attempted to count the wounded.

1 Overview

2 Iraqi military casualties

Perhaps the group that has suffered the largest number of deaths in this conflict—and certainly the group that suffered the greatest losses in the shortest period of time—is the Iraqi military. Although there are no accurate counts of dead Iraqi soldiers, and U.S. Central Command has made few statements on the subject, U.S. General Tommy Franks reportedly estimated soon after the invasion that there had been 30,000 Iraqi troops killed as of April 9, 2003 [1]. Officials did estimate that 2,000-3,000 Iraqi troops were killed in one day alone during a blitz into Baghdad on April 5, 2003, suggesting that a total in the tens of thousands is not unlikely for the entire six-week period of major combat. (Following that period, the Iraqi military was effectively disbanded.)

In late May 2003, one reporter for The Guardian estimated that between 13,500 and 45,000 Iraqi soldiers were killed by American and British troops during the six weeks of war [2].

A later, more frequently quoted study published in October, 2003 estimated that there were between 4,895 and 6,370 Iraqi military deaths [3]. The study explained that to arrive at this number, they had adjusted the underlying incident reports from the field by reducing each count by anywhere from 20% to 60%, based on their own reliability assessments, in order to "control for casualty inflation — a prevalent form of bias." Thus, the actual reports they were summarizing totalled between 6,119 and 15,925 deaths.

One way to estimate the actual number of Iraqi enemy combatants killed is to consider the results of anonymous surveys of U.S. soldiers returning from Iraq done in 2003 as part of a study on posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) published in the New England Journal of Medicine [4]. In this study, 48% of the Army soldiers who had served in Operation Iraqi Freedom and 65% of the Marines said that they were responsible for the death of at least one enemy combatant.

Since at least 180,000 Army soldiers and 58,000 Marines served in Iraq in 2003, this means that a minimum of about 124,000 U.S. troops who returned from Iraq by the end of 2003 each believed they had caused the death of one or more enemy combatants. This would not include any deaths caused by Navy or Air Force personnel, such as those that resulted from the bombing missions during the invasion, nor would it include those killed since the beginning of 2004. However, this could reflect either more or less than 124,000 enemy combatants killed, as there are likely cases where one soldier felt responsible for the deaths of multiple Iraqis, where several soldiers each felt responsible for the death of the same Iraqi, and where soldiers were incorrect in their belief that an Iraqi had died.

3 Civilian casualties

Aside from the Iraqi military, civilians (primarily Iraqis) have suffered the bulk of the remaining fatalities in this conflict. Estimates of the number of civilian deaths are better documented than the estimates of Iraqi military casualties, but they still reveal significant uncertainty. (Note that the groups making these estimates all define the word civilian to exclude the various paramilitary forces operating in Iraq as well as the official military forces that existed under Saddam Hussein's regime.)

One Iraqi group, the "People's Kifah, or Struggle Against Hegemony," conducted a detailed survey in September and October of 2003 throughout the non-Kurdish areas of Iraq to surmise the total number of civilian dead [5]. They tallied 36,533 civilians killed by October 2003. This would not include civilian deaths since that time, nor civilians killed in the Kurdish areas of Iraq.

A western group, the Iraq Body Count project, compiles reported Iraqi civilian deaths that were caused directly by coalition military action or that the Occupying Authority was responsible to prevent under international law. It shows a minimum estimate of 14,378 and a high of 16,514 as of November 14, 2004.

However, this estimate only includes incidents that were reported by at least two sources in the press.

Another way to estimate the actual number of civilians killed is to consider the results of the previously-described anonymous surveys of returning U.S. soldiers [6]. These found that 14% of Army soldiers and 28% of Marines said that they were responsible for the death of a civilian, which means that a minimum of about 41,000 troops who returned from Iraq by the end of 2003 each believed they had caused the death of one or more civilians.

As with the former estimate based on these surveys, this would not include civilian deaths caused by Navy or Air Force personnel, such as those resulting from the bombing missions during the invasion, nor would it include those killed since the beginning of 2004. Again, note that this could reflect either more or less than 41,000 civilians killed, as there are likely cases where one soldier felt responsible for the deaths of multiple Iraqis, where several soldiers each felt responsible for the death of the same Iraqi, and where soldiers were incorrect in their belief that an Iraqi had died.

As for the major combat phase of the war from March–April 2003, Abu Dhabi TV reported on April 8, 2003 that Iraqi sources claimed 1,252 civilians had been killed and 5,103 had been wounded. In comparison, the Iraq Body Count Project estimated that through April 9, 2003, between 996 and 1,174 civilians had been killed.

3.1 Casualties due to poor security after the invasion

In 2004, the Associated Press completed a survey [7] of the morgues in Baghdad and surrounding provinces, to tally violent deaths since President Bush declared an end to major combat operations. In Baghdad alone, they counted 4,279 such deaths in a city of 5.6 million; these deaths generally do not include combatants, because they are typically not brought to morgues. This death rate translates to 76 killings per 100,000 people, compared to 39 in crime-ridden Bogotá, Colombia, 7.5 in New York City, 3.0 in Baghdad itself in 2002 (the year before the war), and the international average rate of 5.5.

Morgues surveyed in other parts of Iraq also reported large increases in the homicide rate. For example, the rate in the province of Karbala, south of Baghdad, rose from an average of one homicide per month in 2002 to an average of 55 per month in the year following the invasion; in Tikrit, north of Baghdad, where there were no homicides in 2002, the rate had grown to an average of 17 per month; in the northern province of Kirkuk, the rate had increased from 3 per month in 2002 to 34 per month in the survey period.

3.2 Non-Iraqi civilian casualties

Many non-combatants from both coalition and non-coalition countries have also been killed or wounded, including more than 30 journalists and more than 150 UN international aid personnel and foreign contractors.

Armed civilian security contractors in Iraq, many of them working for the U.S. Department of Defense, have also died--although some people dispute their civilian status and would consider armed security contractors working with the military to be mercenaries. As of September 29, 2004, some 175 contractors/security personnel are known to have been killed and 14 are missing [8]. These include security contractors, truck drivers, construction workers, and businessmen. These contractors came from the USA, European coalition members, and non coalition countries like South Africa and Germany. However, the nation with the largest number of contractor deaths, according to the list, is the United States, with 62 killed, plus 4 missing.

In addition, although reporting on this situation has been quite sparse, one article [9] reported that at least 80 such "mercenaries" recruited to work in Iraq for American companies were killed during a period of 8 days in early April 2004 — more than the roughly 70 coalition troops who were killed in the same period.

3.3 Excess Mortality Study

A study published in The Lancet on 29 October 2004 contains the following Summary:

Background In March, 2003, military forces, mainly from the USA and the UK, invaded Iraq. We did a survey to compare mortality during the period of 14·6 months before the invasion with the 17·8 months after it.

Methods A cluster sample survey was undertaken throughout Iraq during September, 2004. 33 clusters of 30 households each were interviewed about household composition, births, and deaths since January, 2002. In those households reporting deaths, the date, cause, and circumstances of violent deaths were recorded. We assessed the relative risk of death associated with the 2003 invasion and occupation by comparing mortality in the 17·8 months after the invasion with the 14·6-month period preceding it.

Findings The risk of death was estimated to be 2·5-fold (95% CI 1·6 4·2) higher after the invasion when compared with the preinvasion period. Two-thirds of all violent deaths were reported in one cluster in the city of Falluja. If we exclude the Falluja data, the risk of death is 1·5-fold (1·1 2·3) higher after the invasion. We estimate that 98 000 more deaths than expected (8000 194 000) happened after the invasion outside of Falluja and far more if the outlier Falluja cluster is included. The major causes of death before the invasion were myocardial infarction, cerebrovascular accidents, and other chronic disorders whereas after the invasion violence was the primary cause of death. Violent deaths were widespread, reported in 15 of 33 clusters, and were mainly attributed to coalition forces. Most individuals reportedly killed by coalition forces were women and children. The risk of death from violence in the period after the invasion was 58 times higher (95% CI 8·1 419) than in the period before the war.

Interpretation Making conservative assumptions, we think that about 100 000 excess deaths, or more have happened since the 2003 invasion of Iraq. Violence accounted for most of the excess deaths and air strikes from coalition forces accounted for most violent deaths. We have shown that collection of public-health information is possible even during periods of extreme violence. Our results need further verification and should lead to changes to reduce noncombatant deaths from air strikes.

4 Coalition military casualties

U.S. casualties returning to Dover AFB in a C-17

Casualties among the coalition military forces have been tracked with greater accuracy.

As of November 15, 2004, the coalition death toll in this conflict was 1,335. Of these, 1,189 Americans, 74 British, 19 Italians, 13 Polish, 11 Spanish, 9 Ukrainians, 7 Bulgarians, 3 Slovaks, 2 Dutch, 2 Estonian, 2 Thai, 1 Danish, 1 Hungarian, 1 Latvian, and 1 Salvadoran have died. More than 85% of these died after President Bush's announcement on May 1, 2003 that major combat was over.

Troops killed in action account for 1034 of the coalition casualties, including 922 of the U.S. casualties.

Since the official handover of power to the Iraq interim government on June 28, 2004, coalition soldiers have continued to come under attack in towns across Iraq.

Coalition casualties in the 2003– 2004 conflict are now more than triple those of the 1990– 1991 Gulf War. (In the Gulf War, coalition forces suffered around 378 deaths, and among the Iraqi military, tens of thousands were killed, along with thousands of civilians.)

4.1 Troops fallen ill, injured, or wounded

The total number of non-fatal coalition casualties of all kinds has never been comprehensively reported. For U.S. troops only, though, as of September 15, 2004, UPI reported that 16,765 had been medically evacuated from Iraq and Afghanistan for injuries or illnesses not directly related to combat [10], and the Pentagon's figures showed that 7,245 had been wounded in combat in Iraq by that time. The unspecified fraction of the former group who were evaucated from Afghanistan would not be included in the count for this conflict. However, estimating that the 9-to-1 ratio of U.S. troops killed in Iraq vs. in Afghanistan by then would also hold for non-fatal casualties, then about 15,000 of the medical evacuations would be from Iraq, so the total number of non-fatal U.S. casualties in Iraq was roughly 22,000 as of September 15, 2004.

Statistics on U.S. soldiers wounded in action, however, are disclosed regularly: according to the Pentagon, 8,458 have been wounded in action through November 9, 2004, of whom 4,526 were wounded severely enough that they could not return to action within 72 hours.

In addition, the study on posttraumatic stress disorder found that the percentage of troops suffering from PTSD increased by between 7-10% after deployment to Iraq, which would represent 25,000 to 35,000 initial periodcases of PTSD among the roughly 350,000 U.S. troops who have served in Iraq.

Information on injuries suffered by troops of other coalition countries is less readily available, but a statement in Hansard indicated that 2,703 U.K. soldiers had been medically evacuated from Iraq for wounds or injuries as of October 4, 2004 and that 155 U.K. troops were wounded in combat in the initial invasion [11].

4.2 Nightline controversy

Ted Koppel, host of ABC's Nightline, devoted his entire show on April 30, 2004, to reading the names of 721 of the 737 U.S. troops who had died thus far. (The show hadn't been able to confirm the remaining 16 names.)

Claiming that this would constitute a political statement, the Sinclair Broadcast Group, a media company whose executives have strongly supported President Bush, took the unusual action of barring the seven ABC-affiliated stations it controls from airing the show. This decision drew criticism from both supporters of the war, including Republican Senator John McCain, who denounced the move as "unpatriotic" and "a gross disservice to the public" and U.S. armed forces, and opponents of the war, including the liberal group MoveOn.org.

5 See also

6 External links and references

Effects of the 2003 Iraq conflict

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